Post-Mortem

I like Barack Obama about as much as I liked John Kerry--I will watch the rest of the campaign, nod my head, and say "Yes, better he should be president than anyone else around him." I will even read and internalize some rationales for him. Someone (not sure who) wrote earlier today or yesterday that he's a progressive who's running as a centrist, and will get people who hate Democrats to vote for him. Not an unequivocal plus in my book--eventually you have to govern, you know, and the jig's then up--but it's seemed to work so far.

But my memory does go back four years, and I remember what happened next. After focusing really hard on one candidate until he inevitably flinched, voters were spooked and flocked to the next guy who got their attention, and in the end he didn't have the goods. Does Obama? Well, since I can't very well continue to have my stomach turned by him for the next ten months (and would like to spare my friends any further bitter rants on the folly of being deceived by appearances), I will hope that he does. We could have done better with either of the others, though--they didn't "accidentally" cozy up to the ex-gay movement--or with Dodd in the third tier. (Incidentally, the numbers for Richardson on down are appalling. How do you keep your pride when you've just spent a year campaigning to win less than one percent of the vote?)

At least Iowa is finally fucking over, hopefully for good (this insanity cannot be repeated in four or eight years, god help us). I can sleep at night now that I know.

I have no clue what the GOP result means. Huckabee is a dull-witted Jesus freak hated by his party, so he probably can't win the nomination or election. Romney was just humiliated in the first state and the second has taken to running editorials in the largest papers denouncing him personally, so he probably can't win the nomination or election. Fred Thompson...yeah, not even finishing that sentence. John McCain just came in fourth, and the indie voters who liked him in NH are now going to cross over for Obama, so that's looking less and less likely (besides, vs. Obama? Think Clinton vs. Dole). Giuliani is a scream. Romney spent many millions on his humiliating race and he didn't lose as much by running as Giuliani, who couldn't have lost more public goodwill (his bread and butter) by raping a baby on live television.

I don't know who Obama (or plausibly Clinton, if something unexpected happens and swings things back her way, or possibly Edwards if he capitalizes very effectively on his strong showing and something unexpected happens) will face, but it's going to be a strange and scary race. Still, Obama/Sebelius sounds like a good bumper sticker.