Reshuffling The Deck

There's a lot of concern online today about the possibility of a Huckabee or a McCain victory, since they're both appealing candidates who might put together a winning coalition. (As there was once concern about Romney, Thompson, Giuliani, etc.)

Could either of them win? The preface to that question: Bush won in '00 as the opposition candidate when most aspects of domestic and foreign affairs were smooth and the outlook was good, and in '04 as the incumbent when the country was clearly troubled. Having the right candidate running the right campaign against the wrong candidate running the wrong campaign, or a scenario including most of those elements, can lead to just about any result.

But it strikes me that that's quite a lot for the GOP to hope for. Their candidate is going to have to campaign in the general election on a platform that consists of perpetual war, economic policies that have brought only ruin, and no solutions to the most urgent problems of the day. They will not enjoy their usual cash advantage during the campaign. At their convention they will have to give a prime speaking slot to one of the most despised men in the country. Their opposition has never been so mobilized, and scored an overwhelming victory at the last election. And it looks like we're poised to nominate a charismatic, intelligent, well-informed candidate who's good at campaigning. (This will be true no matter who ends up on top.)

A winning strategy could probably be devised for any Republican running, but man, are they ever running against the wind. I'll take any candidate seriously, but the end of the day I can't quite believe that voters outside the south will flock to Huckabee or that independents will go heavily to McCain if they've got Obama to choose from, and I don't think either candidate can rally the entire base the way Bush twice did. I'm not losing much sleep over the possibility of being crushed by a juggernaut.