Conventional Wisdom

Three odd thoughts on the campaign, now that it's possibly about to end:

1) 9/11 changed everything. Were it not for that one event, I'm confident that Clinton would now be entering the final part of her re-election campaign. She knew that '00 was Gore's year, but she figured that with some Senate experience she'd be able to run herself after two terms of a Democrat (she'd easily dispense with Lieberman), one term of a Republican, or one term of each. In any case she'd be the standard-bearer of a Democratic dynasty, either continuing the trend or cleaning up after a GOP mess. But after 9/11, she (correctly) determined that Bush wasn't vulnerable enough in '04 and decided to put it off for one more term. Wise, to a point...but the things she had to do to continue to position herself as a centrist pol gave her a lot of negatives in an increasingly liberal and energized party, and provided an opening for a new "change" candidate. In short, there would have been only one window for her to capitalize on her strengths, and the terrorists blew it shut.

2) Clinton lost by not losing. It seems to me that the expectations game was never in her favor, but Clinton has still misplayed it, and badly. What happened when every other candidate came up short--when just about every other candidate in every other primary season has come up short? They quickly dropped out with a rueful smile. What can you do, after all? It's politics, and there can only be one winner. Not Clinton. Even as she struggled, even as the odds grew longer and people started to look at her in anger or pity, it was clear that she considered herself a cut above those other candidates, and that a loss would be unthinkable. Well, the unthinkable has occurred. And while any other primary loser could just hop back in the next open race (if not with the same excitement that once was there), she's blown this campaign up to operatic proportions. The hardcore supporters would return. Who else would have the energy, with Mark Warner or someone else exciting in the mix? Who else could see her as a giant after seeing her humbled at such length? No, Clinton's done on the national level--she's going to face a stiff challenge just to keep her Senate seat, as a matter of fact.

3) The system works. I lost my shit a few times this season over how long it's lasted, but it's true. Presented with a race between two A-list candidates who struggled mightily and came up with a thin and debatable margin in the popular vote, our system provided a clear win for the candidate who used the rules to best advantage. Obama sought contributions from the most promising sources, he campaigned hardest in the states that were likeliest to run up his delegate margins, and he approached superdelegates with an effective soft sell. Does that mean he deserves the nomination when the vote ended up as a near tie? Maybe, maybe not--but our party deserves to have a candidate now and not after three ballots and hours of televised screaming. Besides, we've always got a failsafe mechanism in the superdelegates, should Rezko end up being a thornier problem than Wright was.

That's all I have to say for now. If I feel like blogging again, you know where I'll be.